Zero Waste as An Effective Climate Strategy: Avoiding Warming Tradeoffs from Incineration

As global temperatures continue to rise, cutting methane emissions has become an urgent global priority. Methane traps over 80 times more heat than carbon dioxide (CO ) over a 20-year period and is responsible for roughly a quarter of current global warming. The waste sector, particularly the uncontrolled decomposition of organic waste in landfills and dumps, is a major contributor to global methane emissions. In response, cities and countries are increasingly pursuing waste sector reforms as part of their climate strategies.

This report assesses the long-term global warming impacts of three waste management strategies — business-as-usual disposal-based practices such as dumping and landfilling (BAU), incineration, and zero waste practices such as source separation and treatment of organics and recyclables (ZW). The analysis focuses on three urban contexts: Lagos (Nigeria), Barueri (Brazil), and Quezon City (Philippines). Using the Solid Waste Emissions Estimation Tool (SWEET) and the Finite Amplitude Impulse Response (FaIR) climate model, the analysis calculates projected temperature impacts for each strategy through 2060.